Are We In An AI Bubble?
November 26, 2025

At Bull Run Investment Management (BRIM), we're committed to delivering forward-thinking insights that align with your long-term wealth goals. A question we're hearing often is: Are we in an AI bubble? We've been tracking this closely, and ARK Invest's recent research echoes our view—it doesn't resemble the tech and telecom bubble of 2000. Back then, investors funded aspirations; today, they're backing real, accelerating demand.
In 2000, investors poured billions into dot-com companies with sky-high valuations despite many having little to no revenue or profits. Today, capital is targeting AI firms with billions of active users, established customer bases, and double-or triple-digit year-over-year earnings and revenue growth.
AI adoption is surging across all fronts. Weekly active chatbot users have hit ~1 billion globally [1], with potential to reach 4-5 billion by 2035. Enterprises are transforming operations, as seen in Palantir's 121% [2] U.S. commercial revenue growth while reinventing workflows.
The foundational technologies are solid: cloud infrastructure from 2006, deep learning in 2012, transformers in 2017. ChatGPT's 2022 debut revealed years of progress, and we're still in the early innings.
Moreover, AI is converging with five key platforms—robotics, energy storage, blockchain, multiomic sequencing—creating one of history's most transformative innovation eras.
Bubbles form when supply outpaces demand. Today, it's the reverse:
- Data centers are running near capacity
- Enterprises are redesigning workflows from the ground up
- Consumers are adopting AI at extraordinary speed
- Monetization is already taking hold, not sitting as a future assumption
Despite the incredible growth in AI, investor pessimism and bubble talk are rampant. Everyone's is discussing whether or not we are in an "AI bubble," which is exactly why we're not in one. As Cathie Wood and Brett Winton highlighted in their recent AI Bubble Fund-in-Focus episode, true bubbles form in an environment of euphoria and FOMO, not widespread skepticism. You never find yourself in a bubble when everyone's already talking about the bubble.
Professional allocators are starting to take notice. Many are shifting from rigid growth/value silos to innovation strategies with unique drivers and minimal benchmark overlap. As Cathie Wood notes, global real GDP could accelerate to 7-8% over the next decade via AI productivity gains.
“Investor sentiment toward disruptive innovation today is the most bearish we have ever seen—more bearish than in 2000, more bearish than in 2009, and more bearish than in March of 2020. This sentiment is closer to 1995, when the internet was still widely doubted and valuations were reasonable relative to the massive opportunity ahead. Even after the severe declines in the 2000 tech bubble, the leading innovation stocks that survived had tripled from their 1995 levels, and many went on to deliver 10-20x returns over the following decade. In many ways, that extreme skepticism is a very positive sign for us—it strengthens our conviction that we're early in a multi-year supercycle".
This aligns directly with BRIM's Innovation Portfolio, focused on 20-30 public leaders projecting 25%+ annual revenue growth in AI, cloud, cybersecurity, developer platforms, and automation. We're owning the disruptors driving this shift.
Year-to-date performance, gross of fees, underscores the alpha that Innovation led strategies have delivered to investors:
- BRIM Innovation Portfolio: [32.9%]
- S&P 500: [15.3%]
- Nasdaq: [18.4%]
We're ahead of the broad market meaningfully so far in 2025. We're also outperforming ARK's top innovation fund ETF by roughly 5% year-to-date. We're not trying to "beat" ARK—they have their stock picks, we have ours—but both approaches are grounded in the same idea: innovation should outpace traditional benchmarks over time. One thing that helps us: ARK handles a lot more capital, which can limit how concentrated or flexible they can be. With our smaller size, we can stay more selective and agile, which we think positions us well to keep delivering in these fast-changing sectors.
Of course, growth strategies like this come with volatility—it's part of the deal. The best long-term winners have always had ups and downs, but they've rewarded those who stick with the compounding rather than chasing timing. ARK's research backs up that we're likely still in the beginning phases here.
Dive deeper with ARK's resources:
For ARK fund details, visit www.ark-funds.com.
[1] Kemp, Simon. 10/15/2025. “Digital 2026: more than 1 billion people use AI” DataRePortal. [2] Palantir Third Quarter Report.
Sign up for our weekly newsletter.
Market Insights
Comprehensive market insights keep you informed. Our experts analyze financial trends and how they affect your investments and financial strategy. We give you a deep understanding of market dynamics to help you make smart decisions.
Questions? Seeking Further Insight?
Connect with our experts at BRIM.

“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
Warren Buffet
.png)
.png)

